T. Ozbun
Research expert covering food retail and all food topics for Italy and Brazil
Impact of tariffs on agri-food imports in the U.S. - statistics & facts
The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of goods from other countries in 2025 could lead to higher prices for consumers, a scenario many Americans anticipate happening. Initially, tariffs were applied to steel and aluminum imports, but they have now been extended to also encompass food and agricultural goods. This will significantly impact the market, as the U.S. imported over 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of agricultural products globally in 2024. The leading exporting countries most affected by these tariffs include Mexico, Canada, and the European Union.
For Canada, exports of all food items and live animals to the U.S. amounted to close to 36 billion dollars. In this case, cereals were the leading product, with exports reaching almost nine billion dollars, followed by vegetables and fruit, particularly potatoes.
With the newly imposed 25 percent tariffs, albeit with a temporary exemption for certain products, the current market dynamics may shift significantly. In fact, 17.3 percent of the United States’ food and beverage consumption was sourced from imports in 2023. A retaliation has already been observed from Canada, where U.S. spirits have been removed from store shelves.
According to Trump, the intention behind these measures is to strengthen the country's economy. Countries are deeply interconnected, and trade is essential to some industries. With many raw materials and production processes involving multiple countries, each cross-border transaction incurs an additional tariff. This could ultimately drive up prices and reduce stock availability, undermining the original objectives.
North American impact: the cases of Mexico and Canada
Mexico is one of the United States’ main trading partners, and the leading exporter of food to the country. The export value of all food items and live animals from Mexico to the U.S. has steadily increased, surpassing 30 billion U.S. dollars as of 2023. The leading category was vegetables and fruits, including tomatoes, avocado, and berries, which accounted for over half of the imports at 19 billion dollars, followed by beverages, particularly beer, which made up just over a third at 10 billion dollars.For Canada, exports of all food items and live animals to the U.S. amounted to close to 36 billion dollars. In this case, cereals were the leading product, with exports reaching almost nine billion dollars, followed by vegetables and fruit, particularly potatoes.
With the newly imposed 25 percent tariffs, albeit with a temporary exemption for certain products, the current market dynamics may shift significantly. In fact, 17.3 percent of the United States’ food and beverage consumption was sourced from imports in 2023. A retaliation has already been observed from Canada, where U.S. spirits have been removed from store shelves.
Trans-oceanic impact
Both the European Union and China are significant trading partners for the U.S., with the former being a leading exporter of food to the country. A planned 25 percent tariff is anticipated for EU imports, while the U.S. has already implemented tariffs on imports from China which has retaliated by implementing its own tariffs on U.S. goods.The price of protectionism
What do consumers think about this situation? According to a survey, some 40 percent of Americans strongly disapproved of the 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. If prices were to rise due to President Trump’s imposed tariffs on international goods, nearly half of consumers indicated they would switch to more affordable alternatives for their favorite brands, while another 17 percent would stop purchasing those products altogether. A price change has already been anticipated, indicating that overall prices for agri-food products in the country will rise. Imported products are expected to see the most significant price increases, but domestic ones will not be exempt from this trend.According to Trump, the intention behind these measures is to strengthen the country's economy. Countries are deeply interconnected, and trade is essential to some industries. With many raw materials and production processes involving multiple countries, each cross-border transaction incurs an additional tariff. This could ultimately drive up prices and reduce stock availability, undermining the original objectives.
